Changes

What changed between the runs, and what the next run will take into account. Labels name the version of the part that changed.

Next run planned

When an actor picks an option it does not have that week, every actor gets the same neutral reply: the option «is not among your options this week». menu-v14 · mech-v15

Fewer ordinary messages between actors will be stopped by the check on out-of-world wording. guard-v24
The run record will no longer carry reference numbers from an older version of the loss-of-control model. loc-v2

The seed's own source notes will be written in plain words, with no internal field names, for example «episode start years from CTD; used for the ceasefire chance by the war's episode year». next seed

Run record: 2026-11-08-r1

The run record lists the sampling settings sent with every model call, and the first week's model calls are checked against them. sampling-v1
The public run record shows rules and settings only, with no internal working notes. provenance-v1

Most office and rule wording is removed from actors' public texts. This also applies to Run 2's texts as shown now. backstop-v12c · backstop-v12d · backstop-v12e · v12c at the start, v12d and v12e during Run 3
Source notes in the public run record say what a source is used for, without internal version names. mechanism-note-v1 · during Run 3
The rule sentences in each actor's options were reworded at the source, so fewer of them are echoed in public statements. menu-v13 · mech-v14

Fresh data up to 8 November 2026. seed 2026-11-08
India–Pakistan is no longer on the board as «in tension»: the last recorded death between them falls one day before the 365-day window the board reads. seed 2026-11-08
A news signal that read the wrong way was set aside after review. seed 2026-11-08

Runs 1 and 2 used Qwen3.8-27B-4bit, as their run records state. Run 3 uses Qwen3.8-27B-oQ4e-fp16-mtp, the model chosen for the public runs. the model each run record names
«In tension» on the board now means what it means in the data: at least one death in the past year. Non-violent acts such as criticism, posturing, sanctions or a cyber disruption no longer move a pair onto the board or restart its quiet year. They still close the pair's peace talks and cancel its offers. mech-v14 · peace-v2 · tension acts off the board
The loss-of-control model was refitted on this run's starting data and aimed at the middle of its target ranges (the earlier fit sat at the edge of one). The fit was checked with 400 simulated runs instead of 100. loc-v2 · calibration on seed 2026-11-08

Run record: 2026-11-01-r1

Each actor now remembers its own last weeks: what it decided and why (shortened), what happened as a result, the letters it sent, and what it expected. It also keeps a short note to itself for the next week. memory-v1.2
Actors also get a short summary of the world over the four weeks before the last one, built from the simulation's own events. world-memory-v1
Actors can set up meetings, either directly or through a host country. A host must accept first. A meeting is cancelled if the two sides escalate against each other that week. meeting-v1.6
Each actor now reads the state of the world with the measure named, for example perceived risk of a violent or unconstitutional overthrow, perceived quality of public administration, or defence budget rank. menu-v12
Actors' expectations are checked against what actually happened, and the result is reported back to them. memory-v1.2 · resolver

In Run 1, a single answered peace offer moved a war one step down at once. Peace now takes talks first, and a ceasefire comes only by chance while talks are open (see Model). peace-v1 · peace-v2 · peace-v1 replaced by peace-v2
In Run 1, every attack North Korea chose was refused, because its military spending had no published figure and the missing value counted as zero. A missing figure no longer blocks attacks. mech-v13

Defence figures now come from each country's official defence budget, cited per country and converted with World Bank exchange rates. North Korea's budget gives only a share of state spending, and that is shown as such. seed 2026-11-01
Each actor's profile now includes its voting alignment with the USA, China and Russia at the UN General Assembly, 2020–2024. seed 2026-11-01 · chronicle@2
Each war on the board carries the year its current episode began, from the UCDP Conflict Termination Dataset (and the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset where the first has no running episode). seed 2026-11-01 · peace-v2
Visits, trade agreements and defence agreements are unavailable between ten pairs of countries that have no such relations in reality. For two pairs, the actors are told the documented reason. relations-gate-v1
A news signal that was coded wrongly was set aside after review. seed 2026-11-01

Peace now works in steps:
- talks open when one side answers the other's de-escalating move;
- talks close after any escalation, or after three weeks in a row without a de-escalating move;
- while talks are open, each week has a small chance of a ceasefire, from the historical rates in the UCDP data by the war's episode year;
- a pair is out of tension only after 52 quiet weeks.
peace-v2
While a war goes on, a weekly «fighting continued» report appears, at the rate the real conflict showed over the last year. peace-v2
Holding a meeting between two warring parties opens talks or keeps them going. It never ends the war by itself. meeting-v1.6 · peace-v2
More out-of-world wording is kept out of the public texts. guard-v22